The U.S. trucking industry continues to face significant headwinds in 2025, even as diesel prices have retreated from their 2022 highs. Owner-operators and small fleets are grappling with persistently low freight rates, squeezed profit margins, and an uncertain economic landscape. Below, we dissect the key factors driving these challenges, examine the role of brokers and deregulation, and explore potential opportunities for over-the-road (OTR) truckers and small carriers under the Trump administration’s policies.
Why Are Freight Rates Still Low?
1. Overcapacity and Market Imbalance
The trucking industry is still recovering from the freight recession of 2023–2024, where a glut of trucks and weak demand led to a prolonged downturn. Despite some carrier exits (10,770 carriers left the market in August 2024 alone), capacity remains elevated relative to demand, keeping spot rates suppressed.
-Spot rates for dry vans averaged $1.84/mile (excluding fuel surcharge) in September 2024, down from $2.74/mile at the 2021 peak .
– Load-to-truck ratios improved slightly to 7.8 loads per truck in February 2025, but this is still far below the 240:1 peak in late 2021.
2. Economic Uncertainty and Trade Wars
President Trump’s new tariffs —particularly on Chinese imports (145%) and retaliatory measures—have disrupted freight demand. While pre-tariff stockpiling temporarily boosted volumes, analysts warn of a slowdown in manufacturing and imports later in 2025 .
– Industrial production growth was -0.2% YoY in Q4 2024, signaling weak freight demand .
– Ocean imports, a key driver of truckload demand, are expected to decline as tariff effects take hold .
3. Rising Operational Costs
While diesel prices have eased (~$3.61/gallon forecast for 2025), other expenses are climbing:
– Equipment costs surged due to tariffs on steel and aluminum, adding $360 per Class 8 truck.
– Maintenance and insurance costs remain high, squeezing margins for small fleets .
4. Broker Power and Deregulation Concerns
Some owner-operators accuse brokers of unfair rate suppression, but the data suggests broader market forces are at play:
– Spot market volatility has made it harder for carriers to secure stable contracts.
– Deregulation under Trump (e.g., potential rollback of speed limiter rules) may reduce compliance burdens but hasn’t yet improved profitability .
Is There Hope for OTR Truckers and Small Fleets?
1. Signs of a Slow Recovery
– Freight volumesare stabilizing, with 2% YoY growthin early 2025 .
– Carrier exits are gradually rebalancing supply and demand, which could lead to higher rates later in 2025.
2. Strategic Opportunities for Small Fleets
Small carriers can outmaneuver larger competitors by:
– Focusing on niche markets (e.g., regional hauls, specialized freight) .
– Leveraging technology (fuel optimization tools, digital load boards) to cut costs .
– Building strong shipper relationships to secure contract freight over volatile spot market loads .
3. Potential Regulatory Relief
The Trump administration’s deregulatory stance could bring:
– Delayed or scrapped EPA emissions rules , reducing compliance costs.
– No new ELD mandates, preserving flexibility for drivers.
4. Infrastructure and Domestic Manufacturing Demand
– Government infrastructure spending may boost freight demand in construction and utilities.
– Reshoring trends (due to tariffs) could create new freight lanes for domestic goods.
A Cautiously Optimistic Outlook
While the trucking industry remains in a challenging phase, there are glimmers of recovery for OTR drivers and small fleets. The key to survival in 2025 will be adaptability—focusing on cost efficiency, strategic freight selection, and leveraging policy shifts under the Trump administration.
For owner-operators, net income averages $63,000, but those optimizing fuel efficiency and miles can still earn $86,215 . The road ahead is tough, but not without opportunity.
Moïse Garçon, Transparans Executive Editor, is an independent senior journalist and researcher, president of VIZAJ Diaspora, coordinator of Proposition Citoyenne (Citizen proposal).
Moïse G. is also a Trucking & logistics expert, Fleet owner, Freelancer, a Top Gun senior trainer and TSU SE regional VP.
